Wind power growth drives winter risk and supply-dominated variability in Australia’s energy system

Abstract

Achieving Australia’s net zero commitments will require large increases in the amount of electricity generated from renewables. As wind and solar facilities are built, Australia’s power systems will become more dependent on weather and hence exposed to weather variability. Understanding this variability is necessary for managing power systems, but most research has focused on just one aspect of the energy system (either demand, or one or more types of generation). Using reanalysis weather data, we develop an 84 year climatology of monthly utility-scale wind energy, solar energy and operational electricity demand across Australia’s largest power system. We quantify the seasonal cycle and inte..